The Big Tech Earnings Slowdown
The last time Aaron and I spoke, earnings season was going strong (in fact, much stronger than expected). Now it seems Big Tech has dropped the ball, mostly due to a slowdown in cloud growth. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) all saw their cloud and digital advertising businesses suffer in the quarter.
And that makes sense. When folks are fearful of an incoming recession, ad budgets are the first thing to go. But what’s really surprisingly is the resiliency of the consumer in this environment. Indeed, everyone else is reporting fantastic earnings, showing that consumer demand is still high – and that we are not due for a deep recession.
Now, it’s still likely that we see a mild-to-moderate recession in the near future. But it’s highly unlikely to be severe. The 2008 recession scared folks so much that we had 12 consecutive years of above-average savings rates. Then the pandemic hit, and people saved even more. So, despite the fact that the savings rate is plummeting, folks seem financially comfortable enough to weather a downturn. They’ll keep spending – and that should allow the U.S. to avert a deep recession.
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On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.